Strategy vs. dumb luck

Via Mr Guy’s blog – one of our cross link buddies – a neat analysis of the strategic dilemma potentially facing the White House on the assumption that the Republicans do take a majority in the House.

The Dilemma

Compromise on his ideology:  whether to save his own hide in 2012 or to ‘bend to the will of the ignorant, scared, irrational people’, he tacks center left

•  Likely loser in the deal: His ego & legacy
• Likely winner in the deal: His 2012 re-election prospects

Not compromise on his ideology: Veto any bill that isn’t aligned to his ideology, risk repurcussions of a House that gives him no $ for his favored programs and a 2012 electorate that has been doubly scorned/ignored.

• Likely loser in the deal: His agenda
• Likely winner in the deal: A different candidate for President  in 2012 (note I did NOT say Republicans win)

The next two years will test whether Fister/my assertion is correct – winning the Presidential election was “luck”, although it’s unclear Obama wanted the JOB that went with the title based on a host of evidence. He’d rather be Prince Charles who has his own train set.

Right time, right place, right messaging does not equate to the right product –  just the first sale. Brand loyalty comes from great brand experience. In marketing terms – the experience with the brand matches the real or perceived commitments associated with the product. You know – $1T stimulus keeps unemployment below 8% kind of stuff.

For someone that likes to watch good strategy play out, it’s frankly quite a let down. From The Guardian, an article talks about the strategic mismatch – or miscalculations made going into the Election today.

Tensions have come to the surface after meetings over the past few weeks in which Obama senior adviser David Axelrod discussed communications strategy with senior Democratic strategists and party officials. Some Democrats were so unhappy with the White House meetings, they started their own…..

…he focused more on his own image than helping Democratic candidates; and the White House picked the wrong battle when it attacked Republicans for using “outside” money to pay for campaigns, an issue disconnected from voters’ real-world anxieties.

What’s more important – remaining ‘true to himself’ or winning? Hot Air has some views at the link attached