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Am I Really Contra the Trend?

June 26, 2013

I make no secret that I carry a dumb phone.  It’s a 2.5G (a dead spectrum) Sony/Ericsson (a dead brand) with a Cingular logo (another dead brand).  But it makes phone calls and gets about three days of battery life.  However, a coming life change probably means that I need to get a new phone after (I think) seven years.  Neither the lovely wife nor I are Apple people, so the next logical choice was Samsung (since my carrier discontinued the Sony phone they have… for the record I truly like Sony products).

So imagine my surprise when I hear that the bloom is off the Samsung rose, perhaps.

Earlier this month, Susquehanna analyst Chris Caso said that he was dropping his guess on how many of Sammy’s flagship Galaxy S4 mobes were shipping because executives from the firm had told investors that sales were down. He reckons that the electronics giant shipped 20 million phones this quarter and will ship out another 20 million next quarter, not 30 million as he previously estimated, Business Insiderreported.

Also this month, JP Morgan analysts led by JJ Park cut their share-price estimate for Sammy by 9.5 per cent and lowered their 2013 earnings estimate by nine per cent. They now expect shipments of the S4 for the full year to total 60 million mobes instead of 80 million, according toThe Telegraph.

The bigger question is whether all phone sales are falling, or if this is a re-adjustment of market segment share.  Samsung has been rapidly gaining share, and HTC seems to be the new riser in the market.  So if this is squeezing the balloon, then it’s just that Samsung missed with their new product (the one I was looking to get… hmmmm….).

What I wonder is whether the balloon is contracting a bit.  PC sales have certainly been slow in comparison to history, and maybe phones are starting to slow as well, at least in the developed world.  Tablets appear to be growing, but the numbers are still small.  This is a trend to watch.

Years ago, I commented that the Internet would stabilize as a utility.  It would be available in easily ID’d locations, be reasonable in cost, and everyone would expect it to be there.  While I’d debate the cost part, the rest of the story is essentially there.  As such, maybe the trend is to stick with what you like as opposed to find new things to do.  The pace of change is almost too fast for most people to bear, and the tech-savvy market is only so big.

Yea, I’ll keep an eye on this one.

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2 Comments leave one →
  1. June 26, 2013 1:25 pm

    I got a Samsung S4 last month and am loving it. My previous phone was a Palm Pre, which I still think had a better UI, but the Samsung is faster, smoother, and so far has had excellent battery life.

    • June 26, 2013 1:37 pm

      I’m sure any phone would be an upgrade, but I also don’t like the whole smartphone concept (coming from a techie, yes…). I carry a dumb phone and pay for a lot of stuff with cash for a reason.

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