Some Semi-Random Post-Election Predictions
I’m not going to predict the election, other than to say two simple things. First, there will be fewer people voting, and the general percentage of those who do will still not be fully informed about what they’re voting. While a shame, it’s the way of the First World when what you vote appears not to matter (hint: it does). Second, 45+% of the people who vote are going to be very unhappy later in the week, since both sides are absolutely convinced that their guy is going to win it handily.
I’m actually more interested in what’s going to happen post-election, regardless of who wins. Here are a couple thoughts on that:
- Sequestration and many of the tax hits from the Fiscal Cliff will happen. Honestly, if the current administration stays in power, it’ll be to a weakened position in congress. This administration is not known for reaching out for compromise. President Obama has no need to make a deal with congress when he can instead belittle them in the press, and blame them for failure. If the Obama administration is bounced, then the president will have even less reason to deal with congress, and he’ll leave it to Mr. Romney to fix. I do think one or two minor fixes to tax issues will happen, but random fixes will only serve to cause bigger problems.
- The Tea Party will actually be reinvigorated through this cycle. If there’s a new Obama Administration against which to rail, then the peaceful opposition will increase. There are a few strong Tea Party-driven candidates in the mix who appear to be doing well in the election (Mia Love, for instance), so either administration will have to deal with some pretty strong personalities with public backing. Also, I don’t expect a Romney Administration to please those on the Right, and I believe there will be a continued presence of conservatives.
- Gridlock in the Senate will reach to new heights. I can’t say who will control the Senate, but I can say that neither will be able to beat a filibuster, and the ideaology bounds will tighten. There’s a strong (and possibly true) perception that the Republicans fought an Obama Administration agenda purely on the bounds that they didn’t invent it, and Democrats would certainly pay back a Romney Administration to the fullest. I actually think there will be Senate stalling over some things that normally fly through (certain appointements, standard business, etc.) just to make a bad point.
- The American people will really become tired of the divide. While many of us have strong opinions, we can generally agree not to bring them up just becuase it’s Tuesday. The political base can’t seem to do that, and the fatigue is going to be palpable. My main concern here is that this will push even less people to be informed and involved, which is causing some of the issues we’re seeing in the first place.
Either way, I’m proud to be an American and to be able to freely vote my morals and conscience, and that’s a right that I plan to keep. I hope everyone gets as informed as possible and votes.