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Bad handwriting and nerf bats

August 4, 2011

Lots of ‘economic doom’ reports today – no, not because of the debt limit. Here’s a cloud to the debt deal silver lining

  • The ISM services index hit a 17-month low in July
  • The ISM manufacturing index hit a two-year low in July
  • The J.P. Morgan global manufacturing PMI index hit a two-year low in July
  • • Announced U.S. job cuts rose to a 16-month high in July.
  •  U.S. personal income in June rose at the smallest rate since November
  • U.S. consumer spending in June fell for the first time since September 2009 (see this separate report on Dollar stores missing earnings estimates for just how bad this is…UGH)
  • The drop in GDP during the recession from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009 was 5.1%, worse than initially projected. That marks the deepest recession since World War II
  • June nonfarm payrolls growth was the slowest in nine months. The unemployment rate of 9.2% was the highest of 2011. The labor participation rate of 64.1% was a 27-year low.
  • The May trade deficit rose 15% to the highest level since October 2008

I won’t keep going. You can read it here at Market Watch.

Another Market Watch report makes light of the reason being that Geithner stayed around…

Geithner stays and the market tanks

Of course, that is very unfair to Geithner, but there’s a kernel of truth to it. It’s not simply that the U.S. economy is in danger of falling back into recession (on cue — “we never left it”),

That brings me to my first comment – it can’t be a double dip if you never really went up, unless you have REALLY bad handwriting. It’s not a “W” guys, it’s a “U”. Are we all the way down to the bottom or not?

Wherever we are – decisions and policies appear to not be bringing us out of it…National Post

The high priests of economic intervention and fiscal expansion, having had their way for the better part of three years, are now declaring that the United States could dip into another recession…None of this talk, of which there is much across the world, is a function of the U.S. debt-ceiling crisis. …While politicians struggle to interpret the contradictory incantations of economists, the world is struggling under a burden of growth-killing policies

Speaking of wacky policies that run counter to the objectives – in the same Market Watch report – complete inability to attribute cause and effect. They don’t  even question the assumptions to go back and analyze – for real – why something didn’t work.

Across town at the Federal Reserve, central bankers are boxed in as well, having admitted that the previous round of quantitative easing didn’t egg the economy on (though since QE2 ended, conditions seem to have gotten worse)

Um, notice the guy did NOT ask himself – gee maybe, just perhaps – QE2 was the reason things got worse when it ended? It’s as if they believe the ‘cures’ they prescribe can only be at worst neutral if they don’t work as intended.  What doesn’t cure you…

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